REX Regime Board
REX
Bitcoin regime switch · hold or cash, once a day
BTC · connecting
Holding BTC
As of close
Hold
BTC close
In this state since
Below all-time high
Trend (250-day avg)
Volatility (60-day)
Overlay
BTC price, log scale, shaded where REX holds
Holding BTC Cash, trend rule Cash, overlay warning

REX signal score

50 is the trigger. Below 50 is the sell zone, above 50 the hold/buy zone; the ends only show how deep into a zone the reading is. Computed as if BTC closed at the live price now; REX only acts at the 8 PM ET close.

Price vs the line
Trend slope
Sell3 closes in a row below 50, unless the volatility shield is on
Buy1 close at or above 50, or the volatility shield turning on

Slow to sell, quick to buy back. The score follows the stronger of the two readings, because REX only sells when both point down. In a panic the shield keeps REX in rather than selling the bottom. Exception: after an overlay-warning sale, REX ignores the dial and buys back when the trend rule changes state or a new rally outlasts the last three.

Every sell condition, in detail

REX vs Bitcoin, day by day

REX returns include the contest's 1.05% cost on switch days. "Today" runs from the last daily close (8 PM ET) to the live price.

BTC daily moves, last 30 days · solid = REX held that day
DayBTC closeBTCREXPosition

What would you have?

Buy on the day you pick, follow every REX switch since, marked at the latest close.

$
With REX today

ApproachValue todayMultiplePer yearWorst dropSwitches

Daily closes; each switch pays the chosen cost once. A research ledger, not the contest engine's fills.

Trades

Each trade runs from a buy (switch into BTC) to a sell (switch to cash). Returns include the contest costs on both sides.

Drag the chart to move through time. Zoom with − / +, a trackpad pinch, or ctrl + scroll. Hover or tap for a day's details.

Holding BTC Cash, trend rule Cash, overlay warning ▲ Buy (trade number) ▼ Sold: trend turned down ▼ Sold: overlay warning

#BoughtSoldDaysReturnWhy it sold

Track record

Every completed REX trade since the rule had enough history to decide.

The rules

Two layers, decided once per daily close. The book is either 100% BTC or 100% cash; nothing in between.

Layer 1 · Trend and volatility (the base rule)

  1. Trend. Up when the close is above its 250-day average and that average is higher than 20 days ago; down when both point the other way. A new trend reading counts only after 3 days in a row.
  2. Volatility. The 60-day realized volatility, ranked against the previous 365 days, falls into low, middle or high.
  3. Decision. Go to cash when the trend is down and volatility is not high. Anything else, including a mixed or not-yet-confirmed trend, means hold BTC.
average 250dslope 20dconfirm 3 daysvolatility 60d vs 365d

Layer 2 · Weak-high warning (the overlay)

  1. Strength score. A 0–100 blend of drawdown from peak, price versus its 200- and 730-day averages, and a weekly momentum rank.
  2. Warning. BTC closes at a new all-time high, but its score is at least 5 points below the strongest comparable high in the last 180 days (which scored 70+). If the price then slips 1% below the old peak within 7 days, REX goes to cash even though Layer 1 says hold.
  3. Release. Back into BTC when Layer 1 flips, or when a new rally has lasted longer than the longest of the last three rallies (10% swings, within a year).
window 180dgap 5 ptsslip 1% / 7drallies 3 in 365dswing 10%

The overlay has fired three times

March 2021, January 2025 and October 2025, each before a fall. Its three exits survive every setting in an 81-way perturbation test, but all three came before the rule was written, so it is robust in-sample, not proven.

It needs a new record to fire

A warning can only start at a new all-time closing high.

Where it is fragile

The buy-back date moves most under different settings. The January 2025 exit ends on 1 April, 30 April or 19 July depending on the release settings.

Mark and palette

The R's leg is a step function, the on/off switch REX makes each day. The palette doubles as the signal: teal holds, slate waits, brick warns.

On ink
On paper
On amber
Signal amber#D99A2B · brand
Gate teal#1C7C6C · holding
Cash slate#8494A0 · in cash
Warning brick#B8492F · overlay
Ledger ink#13202B · text, dark ground
Tape paper#EDF0EE · light ground